Just average ?

"Since 1854, the average length of a U.S. recession has been 17 months from peak to trough, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. That doesn't tell the whole story, however. Over those 15 decades, the shortest downturn lasted for seven months, while the longest, from October 1873 to March 1879, was 65 months long (the Great Depression actually came in second at 43 months).

Given what got us here this time around -- including the bursting of the biggest credit and real estate bubbles in history -- and the fact that many economic indicators were already in pretty poor shape before the bottom fell out, is it realistic to assume that the current downturn will just be "average" (i.e., last only four more months)?"

See : http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/01/more-than-just-average.html.

I don't think so either.